A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
